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Patriots at Bills
BUF
the pick · 76% to win (model 72%, analyst +4.5)
20–29
projected · BUF by 9.3 · total 49.1
BUF −6.5
final market margin · agrees
Sun 1:00 PM
kickoff (ET) · pick is final at kickoff
Why Buffalo Bills
Each factor's push toward the pick, in percentage points of win probability. Drake Maye vs Josh Allen at quarterback. Forecast at kickoff: 65.0°F, wind 6.0 mph, Mostly Sunny.
BUF at home (+6); BUF has the QB edge (+6); BUF is the better team (+5)
How the number moved
Every pre-kickoff run, oldest first. The last one is the pick of record.
| Run | BUF win | model | analyst | Pick | Market margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 3:02 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +5.1 |
| Sat 7:03 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +5.1 |
| Sun 7:03 AM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +5.1 |
| Sun 11:01 AM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +5.1 |
| Sun 11:47 AM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +5.1 |
| Sun 3:02 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +5.1 |
| Sun 4:13 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +5.1 |
| Sun 7:03 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +5.1 |
| Sun 8:03 PM ET | 65% | 65% | +0.0 | BUF | +5.1 |
| Mon 12:02 AM ET | 72% | 72% | +0.0 | BUF | +8.0 |
| Mon 7:02 AM ET | 72% | 72% | +0.0 | BUF | +8.0 |
| Mon 11:01 AM ET | 72% | 72% | +0.0 | BUF | +8.0 |
| Mon 3:03 PM ET | 72% | 72% | +0.0 | BUF | +8.0 |
| Mon 7:02 PM ET | 72% | 72% | +0.0 | BUF | +8.0 |
| Mon 8:01 PM ET | 72% | 72% | +0.0 | BUF | +8.0 |
| Tue 12:02 AM ET | 73% | 72% | +1.1 | BUF | +8.3 |
| Tue 7:03 AM ET | 73% | 72% | +1.1 | BUF | +8.3 |
| Tue 11:02 AM ET | 73% | 72% | +1.1 | BUF | +8.3 |
| Tue 3:01 PM ET | 73% | 72% | +1.1 | BUF | +8.3 |
| Tue 7:01 PM ET | 75% | 72% | +3.0 | BUF | +8.8 |
| Wed 7:02 AM ET | 75% | 72% | +3.0 | BUF | +8.8 |
| Wed 11:02 AM ET | 75% | 72% | +3.0 | BUF | +8.8 |
| Wed 3:01 PM ET | 75% | 72% | +3.0 | BUF | +8.8 |
| Wed 7:03 PM ET | 75% | 72% | +3.4 | BUF | +8.9 |
| Thu 7:04 AM ET | 75% | 72% | +3.4 | BUF | +8.9 |
| Thu 11:02 AM ET | 76% | 72% | +4.5 | BUF | +9.3 |
What the markets said
Probability the home team (BUF) wins, first snapshot → last before kickoff. Market margin in brackets, home minus away.
| Source | Open | Close | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 70% (+5.5) | 72% (+6.5) | 26 |
| Kalshi | 70% | 74% | 26 |
| DraftKings | 69% (+6.5) | 69% (+6.5) | 6 |
| nflverse price | 69% (+5.5) | 71% (+6.5) | 24 |
| niftiNFL | 65% | 76% (+9.3) | 26 |
What the news layer did
Claims read before kickoff. Bold = applied to the pick; gray = declined and kept as a shadow claim, graded at zero weight. Full analyst page for the week →
| Claim | Team | Player | Conf. | Points (home) | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| key starter out, not on the injury report Offensive lineman placed on injured reserve (thigh injury) on Sept 29 | NE | Greg Van Roten | 0.95 | +1.9 | pending |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for Rookie TE announced death of newborn son from birth defect; significant personal tragedy may affect team focus/performance | NE | Eli Raridon | 0.75 | +1.1 | pending |
| motivation / eliminated / nothing to play for Eli Raridon (TE) announced death of newborn son; potential emotional impact on team | NE | 0.70 | +1.1 | pending | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) Rookie TE Eli Raridon's newborn son died from anencephaly; significant personal tragedy this week | NE | Eli Raridon | 0.85 | +0.4 | pending |
| starting QB change not yet in the feed declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Benched in 4th quarter of Week 3 game vs Jaguars after 3 turnovers; backup took over | NE | Drake Maye | 0.85 | +5.1 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Suffered thigh injury in Week 3; offensive line usage affected | NE | Greg Van Roten | 0.75 | +1.5 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Benched in fourth quarter of Week 3 loss to Jaguars after three turnovers; showing regression and turnover issues | NE | Drake Maye | 0.75 | +1.5 | pending |
| key starter out, not on the injury report declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Left Week 3 game vs Chargers with injury; may need backup cornerback | BUF | Christian Benford | 0.75 | -1.5 | pending |
| suspension declined: no ruled-out language (practice status is not 'out') Returning from suspension, Bills must make roster room | BUF | Phidarian Mathis | 0.70 | +1.4 | pending |
| key starter returning declined: return of a player the model was not counting out Defensive lineman returning from suspension, roster spot to be determined | BUF | Phidarian Mathis | 0.85 | +1.3 | pending |
| locker-room or organizational turmoil declined: confidence 0.60 below floor for turmoil Reports of rift between HC Mike Vrabel and QB Drake Maye; both denied but indicates internal friction | NE | 0.60 | +0.6 | pending | |
| other (in-week, concrete, high confidence only) declined: confidence 0.70 below floor for other Tight end announced death of newborn son; may affect emotional/mental state and availability | NE | Eli Raridon | 0.70 | +0.3 | pending |
Quick answers
When do the New England Patriots play the Buffalo Bills?
Sun, Oct 4, 2026, at 1:00 PM ET, Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season, at the Buffalo Bills' home field.
Who does niftiNFL pick to win New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills?
niftiNFL picks the Buffalo Bills, 76% to win, with a projected score of New England Patriots 20, Buffalo Bills 29. The pick is stored before kickoff and never changed.