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Week 2 review

Sep 22 · predictions are published to show the model works. nothing here is betting advice.Last updated: predictions Oct 1, 11:02 AM ET · results graded Sep 28, 11:22 PM ET
Written by our system from the week's data, with the same language model that reads the news; no human edited it. Every number comes from the Record and Week 2 pages. If a sentence reads wrong, tell us.

Week 2 in review

10–6 straight-up (62%). The market pick at kickoff went 11–5 over the same games. Against the market margin 7–8, totals 6–9.

The model and the market agreed on five of the six misses. In the one spot where we diverged, the market was right.

The misses

  • CLE @ TB: picked Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 74%, final 23–19. The market had it the same way.
  • NO @ BAL: picked Baltimore Ravens at 73%, final 24–17. The market had it the same way.
  • LV @ LAC: picked Los Angeles Chargers at 64%, final 26–14. The market had it the same way.
  • MIN @ CHI: picked Chicago Bears at 61%, final 9–3. The market had it the same way.
  • CIN @ HOU: picked Houston Texans at 54%, final 20–6. The market had it the same way.
  • CAR @ ATL: picked Atlanta Falcons at 53%, final 34–3. We differed from the market here.

The biggest surprise was Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 74%: Cleveland won 23–19.

What stood out

Measured against every game since 2009:

  • Atlanta Falcons committed 5 turnovers.
  • Carolina Panthers won by 31 points against Atlanta, the team's biggest win since the 2015 playoffs.
  • Green Bay Packers beat New York Jets for the first time since Week 16, 2018.
  • New Orleans Saints beat Baltimore Ravens for the first time since Week 7, 2018.
  • Cincinnati Bengals beat Houston Texans for the first time since Week 16, 2020.
  • Las Vegas Raiders beat Los Angeles Chargers for the first time since Week 15, 2023.
  • B. Aubrey (Dallas Cowboys) made a 60-yard field goal, the 36th-longest made of 4,646 games since 2009.
  • Dalton Schultz (Houston Texans) had 140 receiving yards, a career high in 117 games.

Where we differed from the market

We disagreed with the market pick at kickoff in 1 game and went 0–1:

  • CAR @ ATL: we had ATL (53%), the market had CAR (−2.5). The market was right.

What the news layer did

39 claims were applied before kickoff; 16 pointed the right way. No pick flipped.

The news layer helped most on the Falcons' quarterback situation, where uncertainty about Cooper Rush and Michael Penix Jr. pointed toward Carolina. It hurt on reports that Kyler Murray was unlikely to play for Minnesota, which should have picked Chicago but didn't move the needle enough.

Rankings after the week

  • New York Giants down 3 to #20 (from #17).
  • Baltimore Ravens down 1 to #5 (from #4).
  • Carolina Panthers up 1 to #18 (from #19).
  • Chicago Bears down 1 to #23 (from #22).

Next: Week 3

Picks are up on (/sports/nfl/) and update four times a day until kickoff.

Predictions are published to show the model works. Nothing here is betting advice.

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