Sign in
NFL
Write-ups
Write-upsPlayersBacktestHow this works

Week 2 preview

Sep 15 · predictions are published to show the model works. nothing here is betting advice.Last updated: predictions Oct 1, 11:02 AM ET · results graded Sep 28, 11:22 PM ET
Written by our system from the week's data, with the same language model that reads the news; no human edited it. Every number comes from the Record and Week 2 pages. If a sentence reads wrong, tell us.

niftiNFL grades itself honestly, which means publishing picks we expect to lose about 44% of the time. The market wins more often than we do overall, so these 16 games are where the model gets tested.

Where we differ from the market

Two games stand out as meaningful disagreements with the betting price.

CAR @ ATL: We have Atlanta at 55%; the market has Carolina picked at minus-1.5. Atlanta's home field is worth 7 points in our model. The Falcons grade as the better team by 5 points and are in better form by 3. The injury news cut hard against Atlanta, Tua Tagovailoa is ruled out with an oblique injury, and a defensive lineman is out for the year with a torn quad, but those moves still leave us slightly favoring the home team.

JAX @ DEN: We have Jacksonville at 50%; the market has Denver picked at minus-2.5. Jacksonville is in better form by 9 points and has the QB edge by 2, but Denver's home field is worth 8 points. This one is a true toss-up in our view.

The confident ones

Baltimore Ravens over New Orleans Saints at 77%: Baltimore is the better team by 8 points, at home for 6 points, and has the QB edge by 6. New Orleans has injuries that matter: a player on IR who will miss multiple weeks and an RB not expected to play. Baltimore has a fractured wrist that will sideline someone for extended time.

San Francisco 49ers over Miami Dolphins at 75%: San Francisco is the better team by 9 points, at home for 6, and in better form by 4. The 49ers will be without a rookie WR for at least a month with an ankle injury.

The coin flips

WAS @ DAL at 53% for Dallas: Dallas is at home for 8 points and has the QB edge by 5, but Washington grades as the better team by 3. Dallas has significant injury losses: an RB out for the year after hip surgery, a linebacker out 1-2 weeks with a hamstring injury, and a safety out 1-2 weeks with a fractured forearm.

JAX @ DEN at 50%: This one is genuinely even.

Every pick

  • Thu 8:15 PM · DET @ BUF: BUF 67% · projected 24–28
  • Sun 1:00 PM · CAR @ ATL: ATL 55% · projected 21–25
  • Sun 1:00 PM · CIN @ HOU: HOU 58% · projected 23–24
  • Sun 1:00 PM · CLE @ TB: TB 69% · projected 18–25
  • Sun 1:00 PM · GB @ NYJ: GB 63% · projected 24–23
  • Sun 1:00 PM · MIN @ CHI: CHI 67% · projected 20–25
  • Sun 1:00 PM · NO @ BAL: BAL 77% · projected 18–28
  • Sun 1:00 PM · PHI @ TEN: PHI 72% · projected 25–18
  • Sun 1:00 PM · PIT @ NE: NE 68% · projected 20–25
  • Sun 4:05 PM · JAX @ DEN: JAX 50% · projected 23–22
  • Sun 4:05 PM · LV @ LAC: LAC 67% · projected 20–24
  • Sun 4:25 PM · MIA @ SF: SF 75% · projected 19–29
  • Sun 4:25 PM · SEA @ ARI: SEA 70% · projected 24–19
  • Sun 4:25 PM · WAS @ DAL: DAL 53% · projected 26–26
  • Sun 8:20 PM · IND @ KC: KC 69% · projected 20–27
  • Mon 8:15 PM · NYG @ LA: LA 69% · projected 23–29

Predictions are published to show the model works. Nothing here is betting advice.

← All write-ups