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Week 3 review

Sep 29 · predictions are published to show the model works. nothing here is betting advice.Last updated: predictions Oct 1, 11:02 AM ET · results graded Sep 28, 11:22 PM ET
Written by our system from the week's data, with the same language model that reads the news; no human edited it. Every number comes from the Record and Week 3 pages. If a sentence reads wrong, tell us.

Week 3 was a 10–6 straight-up result (62%), with the market pick at kickoff going 9–7 over the same games. Against the market margin we went 6–8, and totals were 8–8.

The misses

We picked the wrong side in six games:

  • SEA @ WAS: picked Seattle at 80%, final 31–33. The market agreed.
  • ATL @ GB: picked Green Bay at 76%, final 35–14. The market agreed.
  • PHI @ CHI: picked Philadelphia at 66%, final 7–27. The market agreed.
  • LV @ NO: picked New Orleans at 63%, final 35–27. The market agreed.
  • CIN @ PIT: picked Cincinnati at 62%, final 27–30. The market agreed.
  • HOU @ IND: picked Houston at 52%, final 17–19. The market agreed.

The biggest surprise was Seattle at 80%. Sam Darnold threw for 379 yards, a career high in 101 games since 2009, and the Seahawks still lost at home.

What stood out

  • Buffalo won despite 5 turnovers; teams that turn it over 5+ times rarely win (179 such games since 2009, and most ended in losses).
  • Minnesota beat Tampa Bay for the first time since Week 3, 2017.
  • Denver beat Los Angeles for the first time in our data (0–4 since 2009 before this).
  • Indianapolis beat Houston for the first time since Week 2, 2023 (5 straight losses in between).
  • Washington beat Seattle for the first time since Week 12, 2021.
  • Drake London had 194 receiving yards, a career high in 64 games since 2009.
  • Green Bay lost to Atlanta by 21 points, the team's worst loss since Week 1, 2021.

Where we differed from the market

We disagreed with the market pick at kickoff in one game:

  • CAR @ CLE: we had Cleveland at 57%, the market had Carolina at −2.5. We were right.

What the news layer did

Forty-eight injury claims were applied before kickoff; 24 pointed the right way. No pick flipped. The claims that hurt the home side included Jayden Daniels ruled out for Washington, Jaxson Dart ruled out for Tennessee, and Caleb Williams ruled out for Chicago. Of the claims we declined, 63 would have helped.

Rankings after the week

  • Chicago Bears up 4 to #17.
  • Green Bay Packers down 1 to #21.
  • Indianapolis Colts down 1 to #19.
  • New Orleans Saints down 1 to #20.

Next: Week 4

Picks are up on (/sports/nfl/) and update four times a day until kickoff.

Predictions are published to show the model works. Nothing here is betting advice.

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