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Buffalo Bills
#1
power ranking
+6.8
strength (pts vs average, neutral field)
3–0
record
12.6
projected wins · playoffs 98% · title 20.5%
1652
Elo · off +0.119 · def +0.019
Josh Allen
named starter · rating +0.136
2–1
our picks on their games
Latest change: held at #1 · beat LAC 24–16 as a pick.
Ranking history
One row per snapshot (the model re-rates every team every run; one snapshot per day is kept). Strength is what ranks them; rank is just its order.
| Snapshot | Rank | Strength | Elo | QB | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | 1 | +6.8 | 1652 | Josh Allen | 3–0 |
| Sep 30 | 1 | +6.8 | 1652 | Josh Allen | 3–0 |
| Sep 29 | 1 | +6.8 | 1652 | Josh Allen | 3–0 |
| Sep 28 | 1 | +6.8 | 1652 | Josh Allen | 3–0 |
| Sep 27 | 1 | +6.8 | 1652 | Josh Allen | 3–0 |
| Sep 26 | 1 | +6.5 | 1644 | Josh Allen | 2–0 |
| Sep 25 | 1 | +6.4 | 1644 | Josh Allen | 2–0 |
| Sep 24 | 1 | +6.5 | 1644 | Josh Allen | 2–0 |
| Sep 23 | 1 | +6.5 | 1644 | Josh Allen | 2–0 |
| Sep 22 | 1 | +6.4 | 1644 | Josh Allen | 2–0 |
| Sep 21 | 1 | +6.4 | 1644 | Josh Allen | 2–0 |
| Sep 20 | 1 | +6.4 | 1644 | Josh Allen | 2–0 |
| Sep 19 | 1 | +6.4 | 1644 | Josh Allen | 2–0 |
| Sep 18 | 1 | +6.4 | 1644 | Josh Allen | 2–0 |
| Sep 17 | 1 | +5.5 | 1629 | Josh Allen | 1–0 |
| Sep 16 | 1 | +5.4 | 1629 | Josh Allen | 1–0 |
| Sep 15 | 1 | +5.4 | 1629 | Josh Allen | 1–0 |
| Sep 14 | 1 | +5.5 | 1629 | Josh Allen | 1–0 |
| Sep 13 | 1 | +5.7 | 1629 | Josh Allen | 1–0 |
| Sep 12 | 1 | +5.7 | 1608 | Josh Allen | 0–0 |
Notable this season
Rare results for this team, measured against every game since 2009.
- Week 3: Buffalo Bills won despite 5 turnovers; teams that turn it over 5+ times rarely do (it has happened in 179 games since 2009, and those teams lost most of them).
- Week 1: Buffalo Bills beat Houston Texans for the first time since Week 4, 2021 (2 straight losses in between).
- Week 1: Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo Bills): 130 receiving yards, a career high in 48 games since 2009 (previous best 108).
2026 schedule and our picks
Our pre-kickoff probability that BUF wins, the pick, and how it went. Future games show the current number; it moves until kickoff.
| Wk | Game | BUF win | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ HOU Texans Sun 1:00 PM |
49% | HOU | 36–31 W pick ✕ |
| 2 | vs DET Lions Thu 8:15 PM |
68% | BUF | 31–41 W pick ✓ |
| 3 | vs LAC Chargers Sun 1:00 PM |
85% | BUF | 16–24 W pick ✓ |
| 4 | vs NE Patriots Sun 1:00 PM |
76% | BUF | pending |
| 5 | @ LA Rams Mon 8:15 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 6 | @ LV Raiders Sun 4:25 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 8 | vs BAL Ravens Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 9 | @ MIN Vikings Mon 8:15 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 10 | @ NYJ Jets Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 11 | vs MIA Dolphins Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 12 | vs KC Chiefs Thu 8:20 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 13 | @ NE Patriots Sun 4:25 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 14 | @ GB Packers Sun 8:20 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 15 | vs CHI Bears Sat 8:20 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 16 | @ DEN Broncos Fri 4:30 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 17 | @ MIA Dolphins Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 18 | vs NYJ Jets Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |