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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
#27
power ranking
-4.3
strength (pts vs average, neutral field)
0–3
record
5.7
projected wins · playoffs 10% · title 0.0%
1430
Elo · off -0.010 · def +0.013
Jalon Daniels
named starter · rating -0.018
2–1
our picks on their games
Latest change: held at #27 · lost to MIN 23–16.
Ranking history
One row per snapshot (the model re-rates every team every run; one snapshot per day is kept). Strength is what ranks them; rank is just its order.
| Snapshot | Rank | Strength | Elo | QB | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | 27 | -4.3 | 1430 | Jalon Daniels | 0–3 |
| Sep 30 | 27 | -4.3 | 1430 | Jalon Daniels | 0–3 |
| Sep 29 | 27 | -4.3 | 1430 | Jalon Daniels | 0–3 |
| Sep 28 | 24 | -2.6 | 1430 | Baker Mayfield | 0–3 |
| Sep 27 | 23 | -2.2 | 1430 | Baker Mayfield | 0–3 |
| Sep 26 | 21 | -1.9 | 1444 | Baker Mayfield | 0–2 |
| Sep 25 | 20 | -1.9 | 1444 | Baker Mayfield | 0–2 |
| Sep 24 | 20 | -1.8 | 1444 | Baker Mayfield | 0–2 |
| Sep 23 | 20 | -1.8 | 1444 | Baker Mayfield | 0–2 |
| Sep 22 | 20 | -1.9 | 1444 | Baker Mayfield | 0–2 |
| Sep 21 | 20 | -1.9 | 1444 | Baker Mayfield | 0–2 |
| Sep 20 | 20 | -1.8 | 1444 | Baker Mayfield | 0–2 |
| Sep 19 | 20 | -1.4 | 1466 | Baker Mayfield | 0–1 |
| Sep 18 | 20 | -1.4 | 1466 | Baker Mayfield | 0–1 |
| Sep 17 | 20 | -1.4 | 1466 | Baker Mayfield | 0–1 |
| Sep 16 | 20 | -1.4 | 1466 | Baker Mayfield | 0–1 |
| Sep 15 | 20 | -1.4 | 1466 | Baker Mayfield | 0–1 |
| Sep 14 | 20 | -1.3 | 1466 | Baker Mayfield | 0–1 |
| Sep 13 | 20 | -1.2 | 1466 | Baker Mayfield | 0–1 |
| Sep 12 | 18 | -0.5 | 1482 | Baker Mayfield | 0–0 |
2026 schedule and our picks
Our pre-kickoff probability that TB wins, the pick, and how it went. Future games show the current number; it moves until kickoff.
| Wk | Game | TB win | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ CIN Bengals Sun 1:00 PM |
35% | CIN | 27–33 L pick ✓ |
| 2 | vs CLE Browns Sun 1:00 PM |
74% | TB | 23–19 L pick ✕ |
| 3 | vs MIN Vikings Sun 4:05 PM |
46% | MIN | 23–16 L pick ✓ |
| 4 | vs GB Packers Sun 1:00 PM |
42% | GB | pending |
| 5 | @ DAL Cowboys Thu 8:15 PM |
28% | DAL | pending |
| 6 | vs PIT Steelers Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 7 | @ CAR Panthers Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 8 | vs ATL Falcons Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 9 | @ CHI Bears Sun 8:20 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 11 | @ DET Lions Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 12 | vs CAR Panthers Mon 8:15 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 13 | vs LAC Chargers Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 14 | @ BAL Ravens Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 15 | vs NO Saints Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 16 | @ ATL Falcons Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 17 | vs LA Rams Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 18 | @ NO Saints Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |