NFL
More
Washington Commanders
#26
power ranking
-3.8
strength (pts vs average, neutral field)
1–2
record
7.0
projected wins · playoffs 12% · title 0.1%
1451
Elo · off +0.030 · def +0.068
Jayden Daniels
named starter · rating +0.032
2–1
our picks on their games
Latest change: held at #26 · beat SEA 33–31 as an other side.
Ranking history
One row per snapshot (the model re-rates every team every run; one snapshot per day is kept). Strength is what ranks them; rank is just its order.
| Snapshot | Rank | Strength | Elo | QB | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | 26 | -3.8 | 1451 | Jayden Daniels | 1–2 |
| Sep 30 | 26 | -3.8 | 1451 | Jayden Daniels | 1–2 |
| Sep 29 | 26 | -3.8 | 1451 | Jayden Daniels | 1–2 |
| Sep 28 | 27 | -3.8 | 1451 | Jayden Daniels | 1–2 |
| Sep 27 | 27 | -3.8 | 1451 | Jayden Daniels | 1–2 |
| Sep 26 | 25 | -2.9 | 1433 | Jayden Daniels | 0–2 |
| Sep 25 | 25 | -2.9 | 1433 | Jayden Daniels | 0–2 |
| Sep 24 | 24 | -2.8 | 1433 | Jayden Daniels | 0–2 |
| Sep 23 | 24 | -2.8 | 1433 | Jayden Daniels | 0–2 |
| Sep 22 | 24 | -2.9 | 1433 | Jayden Daniels | 0–2 |
| Sep 21 | 25 | -2.9 | 1433 | Jayden Daniels | 0–2 |
| Sep 20 | 26 | -2.9 | 1433 | Jayden Daniels | 0–2 |
| Sep 19 | 22 | -1.8 | 1458 | Jayden Daniels | 0–1 |
| Sep 18 | 22 | -1.8 | 1458 | Jayden Daniels | 0–1 |
| Sep 17 | 22 | -1.8 | 1458 | Jayden Daniels | 0–1 |
| Sep 16 | 22 | -1.8 | 1458 | Jayden Daniels | 0–1 |
| Sep 15 | 22 | -1.8 | 1458 | Jayden Daniels | 0–1 |
| Sep 14 | 22 | -1.8 | 1458 | Jayden Daniels | 0–1 |
| Sep 13 | 25 | -3.4 | 1464 | Jayden Daniels | 0–0 |
| Sep 12 | 25 | -3.1 | 1464 | Jayden Daniels | 0–0 |
Notable this season
Rare results for this team, measured against every game since 2009.
2026 schedule and our picks
Our pre-kickoff probability that WAS wins, the pick, and how it went. Future games show the current number; it moves until kickoff.
| Wk | Game | WAS win | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ PHI Eagles Sun 4:25 PM |
30% | PHI | 22–24 L pick ✓ |
| 2 | @ DAL Cowboys Sun 4:25 PM |
44% | DAL | 20–37 L pick ✓ |
| 3 | vs SEA Seahawks Sun 1:00 PM |
20% | SEA | 31–33 W pick ✕ |
| 4 | vs IND Colts Sun 9:30 AM |
40% | IND | pending |
| 5 | vs NYG Giants Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 6 | @ SF 49ers Mon 8:15 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 8 | vs PHI Eagles Sun 8:20 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 9 | vs LA Rams Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 10 | @ NYG Giants Thu 8:15 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 11 | vs CIN Bengals Mon 8:15 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 12 | @ ARI Cardinals Sun 4:25 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 13 | @ TEN Titans Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 14 | vs HOU Texans Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 15 | vs ATL Falcons Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 16 | @ MIN Vikings Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 17 | @ JAX Jaguars Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 18 | vs DAL Cowboys Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |