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Atlanta Falcons
#15
power ranking
+0.4
strength (pts vs average, neutral field)
1–2
record
7.9
projected wins · playoffs 40% · title 1.1%
1461
Elo · off -0.029 · def +0.005
Michael Penix Jr.
named starter · rating +0.030
1–2
our picks on their games
Latest change: held at #15 · beat GB 35–14 as an other side.
Ranking history
One row per snapshot (the model re-rates every team every run; one snapshot per day is kept). Strength is what ranks them; rank is just its order.
| Snapshot | Rank | Strength | Elo | QB | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1 | 15 | +0.4 | 1461 | Michael Penix Jr. | 1–2 |
| Sep 30 | 15 | +0.4 | 1461 | Michael Penix Jr. | 1–2 |
| Sep 29 | 15 | +0.4 | 1461 | Michael Penix Jr. | 1–2 |
| Sep 28 | 14 | +0.4 | 1461 | Michael Penix Jr. | 1–2 |
| Sep 27 | 14 | +0.5 | 1461 | Michael Penix Jr. | 1–2 |
| Sep 26 | 14 | +0.4 | 1461 | Michael Penix Jr. | 1–2 |
| Sep 25 | 14 | +0.4 | 1461 | Michael Penix Jr. | 1–2 |
| Sep 24 | 27 | -4.4 | 1413 | Michael Penix Jr. | 0–2 |
| Sep 23 | 27 | -4.4 | 1413 | Michael Penix Jr. | 0–2 |
| Sep 22 | 28 | -4.4 | 1413 | Michael Penix Jr. | 0–2 |
| Sep 21 | 28 | -4.5 | 1413 | Michael Penix Jr. | 0–2 |
| Sep 20 | 27 | -3.1 | 1413 | Tua Tagovailoa | 0–2 |
| Sep 19 | 19 | -1.4 | 1461 | Tua Tagovailoa | 0–1 |
| Sep 18 | 19 | -1.4 | 1461 | Tua Tagovailoa | 0–1 |
| Sep 17 | 19 | -1.3 | 1461 | Tua Tagovailoa | 0–1 |
| Sep 16 | 19 | -1.3 | 1461 | Tua Tagovailoa | 0–1 |
| Sep 15 | 19 | -1.3 | 1461 | Tua Tagovailoa | 0–1 |
| Sep 14 | 19 | -1.3 | 1461 | Tua Tagovailoa | 0–1 |
| Sep 13 | 19 | -1.2 | 1461 | Tua Tagovailoa | 0–1 |
| Sep 12 | 27 | -3.6 | 1475 | Cooper Rush | 0–0 |
Notable this season
Rare results for this team, measured against every game since 2009.
2026 schedule and our picks
Our pre-kickoff probability that ATL wins, the pick, and how it went. Future games show the current number; it moves until kickoff.
| Wk | Game | ATL win | Pick | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ PIT Steelers Sun 1:00 PM |
35% | PIT | 13–20 L pick ✓ |
| 2 | vs CAR Panthers Sun 1:00 PM |
53% | ATL | 34–3 L pick ✕ |
| 3 | @ GB Packers Thu 8:15 PM |
24% | GB | 35–14 W pick ✕ |
| 4 | @ NO Saints Mon 8:15 PM |
50% | NO | pending |
| 5 | vs BAL Ravens Sun 8:20 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 6 | vs CHI Bears Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 7 | vs SF 49ers Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 8 | @ TB Buccaneers Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 9 | vs CIN Bengals Sun 9:30 AM |
– | – | pending |
| 10 | vs KC Chiefs Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 12 | @ MIN Vikings Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 13 | vs DET Lions Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 14 | @ CLE Browns Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 15 | @ WAS Commanders Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 16 | vs TB Buccaneers Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 17 | vs NO Saints Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |
| 18 | @ CAR Panthers Sun 1:00 PM |
– | – | pending |