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Kansas City Chiefs

AFC West · 2026 season · predictions are published to show the model works. nothing here is betting advice.Last updated: predictions Oct 1, 11:02 AM ET · results graded Sep 28, 11:22 PM ET
#5
power ranking
+4.3
strength (pts vs average, neutral field)
3–0
record
11.0
projected wins · playoffs 88% · title 7.2%
1559
Elo · off +0.046 · def -0.019
Patrick Mahomes
named starter · rating +0.103
2–1
our picks on their games
Latest change: held at #5 · beat MIA 24–10 as a pick.

Ranking history

One row per snapshot (the model re-rates every team every run; one snapshot per day is kept). Strength is what ranks them; rank is just its order.
18162432 Sep 12: #17, -0.2Sep 13: #18, -0.5Sep 14: #18, -0.8Sep 15: #8, +3.0Sep 16: #8, +3.0Sep 17: #8, +3.0Sep 18: #8, +3.0Sep 19: #8, +3.0Sep 20: #9, +2.9Sep 21: #8, +3.2Sep 22: #7, +3.3Sep 23: #7, +3.3Sep 24: #8, +3.3Sep 25: #8, +3.2Sep 26: #8, +3.2Sep 27: #5, +4.5Sep 28: #5, +4.4Sep 29: #5, +4.4Sep 30: #5, +4.4Oct 1: #5, +4.3
SnapshotRankStrengthEloQBRecord
Oct 15+4.31559Patrick Mahomes3–0
Sep 305+4.41559Patrick Mahomes3–0
Sep 295+4.41559Patrick Mahomes3–0
Sep 285+4.41559Patrick Mahomes3–0
Sep 275+4.51559Patrick Mahomes3–0
Sep 268+3.21538Patrick Mahomes2–0
Sep 258+3.21538Patrick Mahomes2–0
Sep 248+3.31538Patrick Mahomes2–0
Sep 237+3.31538Patrick Mahomes2–0
Sep 227+3.31538Patrick Mahomes2–0
Sep 218+3.21538Patrick Mahomes2–0
Sep 209+2.91530Patrick Mahomes1–0
Sep 198+3.01530Patrick Mahomes1–0
Sep 188+3.01530Patrick Mahomes1–0
Sep 178+3.01530Patrick Mahomes1–0
Sep 168+3.01530Patrick Mahomes1–0
Sep 158+3.01530Patrick Mahomes1–0
Sep 1418-0.81492Patrick Mahomes0–0
Sep 1318-0.51492Patrick Mahomes0–0
Sep 1217-0.21492Patrick Mahomes0–0

Notable this season

Rare results for this team, measured against every game since 2009.

2026 schedule and our picks

Our pre-kickoff probability that KC wins, the pick, and how it went. Future games show the current number; it moves until kickoff.
WkGameKC winPickResult
1 vs DEN Broncos
Mon 8:15 PM
 38% DEN 10–31 W pick ✕
2 vs IND Colts
Sun 8:20 PM
 66% KC 30–33 W pick ✓
3 @ MIA Dolphins
Sun 1:00 PM
 60% KC 24–10 W pick ✓
4 @ LV Raiders
Sun 4:25 PM
 64% KC pending
6 vs LAC Chargers
Sun 4:25 PM
 – – pending
7 @ SEA Seahawks
Sun 8:20 PM
 – – pending
8 @ DEN Broncos
Sun 4:25 PM
 – – pending
9 vs NYJ Jets
Sun 1:00 PM
 – – pending
10 @ ATL Falcons
Sun 1:00 PM
 – – pending
11 vs ARI Cardinals
Sun 1:00 PM
 – – pending
12 @ BUF Bills
Thu 8:20 PM
 – – pending
13 @ LA Rams
Thu 8:15 PM
 – – pending
14 @ CIN Bengals
Sun 4:25 PM
 – – pending
15 vs NE Patriots
Mon 8:15 PM
 – – pending
16 vs SF 49ers
Sun 4:25 PM
 – – pending
17 @ LAC Chargers
Sun 1:00 PM
 – – pending
18 vs LV Raiders
Sun 1:00 PM
 – – pending
← All rankings · Season projections