Sign in
NFL
More
Write-upsPlayersBacktestHow this works

New England Patriots

AFC East · 2026 season · predictions are published to show the model works. nothing here is betting advice.Last updated: predictions Oct 1, 11:02 AM ET · results graded Sep 28, 11:22 PM ET
#14
power ranking
+0.6
strength (pts vs average, neutral field)
1–2
record
8.5
projected wins · playoffs 41% · title 0.9%
1577
Elo · off +0.018 · def -0.019
Drake Maye
named starter · rating +0.037
2–0
our picks on their games
Latest change: held at #14 · lost to JAX 35–6.

Ranking history

One row per snapshot (the model re-rates every team every run; one snapshot per day is kept). Strength is what ranks them; rank is just its order.
18162432 Sep 12: #10, +2.5Sep 13: #10, +2.3Sep 14: #10, +2.1Sep 15: #11, +2.1Sep 16: #11, +2.1Sep 17: #11, +2.1Sep 18: #11, +2.0Sep 19: #11, +2.0Sep 20: #6, +3.2Sep 21: #6, +3.3Sep 22: #6, +3.4Sep 23: #6, +3.4Sep 24: #6, +3.4Sep 25: #6, +3.4Sep 26: #6, +3.4Sep 27: #13, +0.7Sep 28: #13, +0.6Sep 29: #14, +0.6Sep 30: #14, +0.6Oct 1: #14, +0.6
SnapshotRankStrengthEloQBRecord
Oct 114+0.61577Drake Maye1–2
Sep 3014+0.61577Drake Maye1–2
Sep 2914+0.61577Drake Maye1–2
Sep 2813+0.61577Drake Maye1–2
Sep 2713+0.71577Drake Maye1–2
Sep 266+3.41610Drake Maye1–1
Sep 256+3.41610Drake Maye1–1
Sep 246+3.41610Drake Maye1–1
Sep 236+3.41610Drake Maye1–1
Sep 226+3.41610Drake Maye1–1
Sep 216+3.31610Drake Maye1–1
Sep 206+3.21610Drake Maye1–1
Sep 1911+2.01591Drake Maye0–1
Sep 1811+2.01591Drake Maye0–1
Sep 1711+2.11591Drake Maye0–1
Sep 1611+2.11591Drake Maye0–1
Sep 1511+2.11591Drake Maye0–1
Sep 1410+2.11591Drake Maye0–1
Sep 1310+2.31591Drake Maye0–1
Sep 1210+2.51591Drake Maye0–1

2026 schedule and our picks

Our pre-kickoff probability that NE wins, the pick, and how it went. Future games show the current number; it moves until kickoff.
WkGameNE winPickResult
1 @ SEA Seahawks
Wed 8:20 PM
 – – 10–13 L
2 vs PIT Steelers
Sun 1:00 PM
 66% NE 3–20 W pick ✓
3 @ JAX Jaguars
Sun 1:00 PM
 38% JAX 6–35 L pick ✓
4 @ BUF Bills
Sun 1:00 PM
 24% BUF pending
5 vs LV Raiders
Sun 1:00 PM
 – – pending
6 vs NYJ Jets
Sun 1:00 PM
 – – pending
7 @ CHI Bears
Thu 8:15 PM
 – – pending
8 @ MIA Dolphins
Sun 4:25 PM
 – – pending
9 vs GB Packers
Sun 4:25 PM
 – – pending
10 @ DET Lions
Sun 9:30 AM
 – – pending
12 @ LAC Chargers
Sun 8:20 PM
 – – pending
13 vs BUF Bills
Sun 4:25 PM
 – – pending
14 vs MIN Vikings
Thu 8:15 PM
 – – pending
15 @ KC Chiefs
Mon 8:15 PM
 – – pending
16 @ NYJ Jets
Sun 1:00 PM
 – – pending
17 vs DEN Broncos
Sun 1:00 PM
 – – pending
18 vs MIA Dolphins
Sun 1:00 PM
 – – pending
← All rankings · Season projections