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Markets · Week 5
Season record vs the markets
Straight-up, on the 47 graded games. "Differ" = games where our pick was the other side of that market's pick, and how often we were right there.
| Market | At | Games | Market right | We were right | Agreed | Differed | Our record when we differed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | close | 47 | 63.8% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 4–4 |
| DraftKings | open | 33 | 57.6% | 63.6% | 29 | 4 | 3–1 |
| Kalshi | close | 34 | 61.8% | 61.8% | 30 | 4 | 2–2 |
| Kalshi | open | 34 | 55.9% | 61.8% | 28 | 6 | 4–2 |
| nflverse price | close | 47 | 63.8% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 4–4 |
| nflverse price | open | 47 | 59.6% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 5–3 |
| Polymarket | close | 47 | 63.8% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 4–4 |
| Polymarket | open | 47 | 59.6% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 5–3 |
Big divergences (our closing probability at least 8 points from Polymarket's): 12 games: we were right in 8, Polymarket in 8.
Where these prices come from
Four public sources, none of them a model input. We show them so our number can be judged against the market's, and we say plainly which links pay us.
| Source | What it is | How we read it |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | A prediction market: people trade contracts on each team, so the price is the crowd's probability. | Public API, no account. Price of the home team's contract. |
| Kalshi | A prediction market regulated by the CFTC as an exchange (not a sportsbook). Same idea: the price is the probability. | Public API, no account. Midpoint of the bid and ask, or the last trade. |
| DraftKings via ESPN | A sportsbook price as displayed on ESPN's scoreboard. | Market price with the bookmaker's margin removed; the market margin when no market price is posted. |
| nflverse price | The consensus market's final price in the open nflverse dataset, the same price every backtest is graded against. | Market margin, total and market price as published. |
Week 5 · probability the home team wins
Each cell is open → close for that source, including ours. Bold = the source's pick at close. Market margin in brackets is home-minus-away (positive = home picked); ours is the model's projected margin. Polymarket and Kalshi prices are the market's own probability; sportsbook price are de-vigged from the market price. green = that source's benchmark pick is our pick; red = we differ.
| Kickoff | Game | NFL (runs) | Polymarket | Kalshi | nflverse | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | TB @ DAL | 71% (+5.5) → 72% (+5.6) (7) | 80% (+9.5) → 80% (+9.5) | 82% → 80% | 80% (+9.5) → 81% (+9.5) | pending |
| Sun 9:30 AM | PHI @ JAX | – | – | – | – | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | CIN @ MIA | – | – | – | – | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | LV @ NE | – | – | – | – | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | MIN @ NO | – | – | – | – | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | CLE @ NYJ | – | – | – | – | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | IND @ PIT | – | – | – | – | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | HOU @ TEN | – | – | – | – | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | NYG @ WAS | – | – | – | – | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | CHI @ GB | – | – | – | – | pending |
| Sun 4:05 PM | DEN @ LAC | – | – | – | – | pending |
| Sun 4:25 PM | DET @ ARI | – | – | – | – | pending |
| Sun 4:25 PM | SF @ SEA | – | – | – | – | pending |
| Sun 8:20 PM | BAL @ ATL | – | – | – | – | pending |
| Mon 8:15 PM | BUF @ LA | – | – | – | – | pending |
Sources: nflverse schedule feed (the market's final price used in every backtest), Polymarket public API (prices are the market's own probability; liquidity varies by game), ESPN's scoreboard feed (provider as named by ESPN). All free, none paid, none a model input.