NFL
More
Markets · Week 1
Games to watch · where our pick differs from the market
These 3 games are our ones to watch coming into Week 1, where our model backs a different team than the market's benchmark pick and our pick is at least 52% (near coin-flips are left out). Both numbers are the probability that our pick wins; the market is a comparison, never a model input.
MIA @ LVSun 4:25 PM · final: LV
We back MIA · the market leans LV
NFL57%
market40%
DEN @ KCMon 8:15 PM · final: KC
We back DEN · the market leans KC
NFL62%
market45%
DAL @ NYGSun 8:20 PM · final: NYG
We back NYG · the market leans DAL
NFL55%
market40%
Share this: the card image, or post the Markets page and it unfurls with this card.
Season record vs the markets
Straight-up, on the 47 graded games. "Differ" = games where our pick was the other side of that market's pick, and how often we were right there.
| Market | At | Games | Market right | We were right | Agreed | Differed | Our record when we differed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | close | 47 | 63.8% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 4–4 |
| DraftKings | open | 33 | 57.6% | 63.6% | 29 | 4 | 3–1 |
| Kalshi | close | 34 | 61.8% | 61.8% | 30 | 4 | 2–2 |
| Kalshi | open | 34 | 55.9% | 61.8% | 28 | 6 | 4–2 |
| nflverse price | close | 47 | 63.8% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 4–4 |
| nflverse price | open | 47 | 59.6% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 5–3 |
| Polymarket | close | 47 | 63.8% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 4–4 |
| Polymarket | open | 47 | 59.6% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 5–3 |
Big divergences (our closing probability at least 8 points from Polymarket's): 12 games: we were right in 8, Polymarket in 8.
Where these prices come from
Four public sources, none of them a model input. We show them so our number can be judged against the market's, and we say plainly which links pay us.
| Source | What it is | How we read it |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | A prediction market: people trade contracts on each team, so the price is the crowd's probability. | Public API, no account. Price of the home team's contract. |
| Kalshi | A prediction market regulated by the CFTC as an exchange (not a sportsbook). Same idea: the price is the probability. | Public API, no account. Midpoint of the bid and ask, or the last trade. |
| DraftKings via ESPN | A sportsbook price as displayed on ESPN's scoreboard. | Market price with the bookmaker's margin removed; the market margin when no market price is posted. |
| nflverse price | The consensus market's final price in the open nflverse dataset, the same price every backtest is graded against. | Market margin, total and market price as published. |
Week 1 · probability the home team wins
Each cell is open → close for that source, including ours. Bold = the source's pick at close. Market margin in brackets is home-minus-away (positive = home picked); ours is the model's projected margin. Polymarket and Kalshi prices are the market's own probability; sportsbook price are de-vigged from the market price. green = that source's benchmark pick is our pick; red = we differ.
| Kickoff | Game | NFL (runs) | Polymarket | DraftKings | nflverse | Kalshi | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 8:20 PM | NE @ SEA | – | – | – | – | – | SEA |
| Thu 8:35 PM | SF @ LA | – | – | – | – | – | SF |
| Sun 1:00 PM | CHI @ CAR | 43% (-1.8) → 43% (-1.8) (10) | 40% (-3.5) → 40% (-3.5) | 41% (-3.0) → 41% (-3.0) | 40% (-3.0) → 40% (-3.0) | – | CHI |
| Sun 1:00 PM | TB @ CIN | 65% (+4.9) → 65% (+4.9) (10) | 64% (+3.5) → 64% (+3.5) | 60% (+3.5) → 60% (+3.5) | 64% (+3.5) → 64% (+3.5) | – | CIN |
| Sun 1:00 PM | NO @ DET | 74% (+8.3) → 76% (+8.8) (10) | 74% (+6.5) → 74% (+7.5) | 70% (+7.0) → 70% (+7.0) | 74% (+7.0) → 73% (+7.0) | – | DET |
| Sun 1:00 PM | BUF @ HOU | 51% (+0.5) → 51% (+0.5) (10) | 48% (-1.5) → 48% (-1.5) | 46% (-1.5) → 46% (-1.5) | 48% (-1.5) → 50% (-1.5) | – | BUF |
| Sun 1:00 PM | BAL @ IND | 39% (-1.8) → 41% (-1.3) (10) | 40% (-3.5) → 40% (-3.5) | 40% (-3.5) → 40% (-3.5) | 39% (-3.5) → 39% (-3.5) | – | BAL |
| Sun 1:00 PM | CLE @ JAX | 81% (+9.6) → 81% (+9.6) (9) | 78% (+9.5) → 80% (+9.5) | 74% (+8.5) → 74% (+8.5) | 79% (+8.5) → 79% (+8.5) | – | JAX |
| Sun 1:00 PM | ATL @ PIT | 67% (+5.5) → 65% (+5.0) (10) | 72% (+5.5) → 72% (+6.5) | 67% (+6.0) → 69% (+6.5) | 70% (+6.0) → 72% (+6.5) | – | PIT |
| Sun 1:00 PM | NYJ @ TEN | 53% (+1.1) → 53% (+1.1) (9) | 52% (+1.5) → 52% (+1.5) | 54% (+1.5) → 54% (+1.5) | 53% (+1.5) → 52% (+1.5) | – | NYJ |
| Sun 4:25 PM | ARI @ LAC | 75% (+8.4) → 75% (+8.4) (12) | 80% (+10.5) → 80% (+10.5) | 76% (+9.5) → 74% (+8.5) | 80% (+9.5) → 79% (+8.5) | – | ARI |
| Sun 4:25 PM | MIA @ LV | 41% (-2.5) → 43% (-1.9) (12) | 60% (+3.5) → 60% (+3.5) | 59% (+3.0) → 59% (+3.0) | 60% (+3.0) → 60% (+3.0) | – | LV |
| Sun 4:25 PM | GB @ MIN | 53% (+1.8) → 49% (-0.5) (12) | 55% (+1.5) → 56% (+1.5) | 54% (+1.5) → 54% (+1.5) | 53% (+1.5) → 53% (+1.5) | – | MIN |
| Sun 4:25 PM | WAS @ PHI | 70% (+6.5) → 70% (+6.5) (12) | 68% (+4.5) → 70% (+5.5) | 67% (+6.0) → 67% (+6.0) | 69% (+6.0) → 69% (+6.0) | – | PHI |
| Sun 8:20 PM | DAL @ NYG | 55% (+1.1) → 55% (+1.1) (13) | 40% (-2.5) → 38% (-3.5) | 41% (-3.0) → 41% (-3.0) | 41% (-3.0) → 40% (-3.0) | – | NYG |
| Mon 8:15 PM | DEN @ KC | 42% (-1.2) → 38% (-2.3) (18) | 56% (+2.5) → 55% (+2.5) | 57% (+2.5) → 57% (+2.5) | 56% (+2.5) → 54% (+2.5) | 56% → 54% | KC |
Sources: nflverse schedule feed (the market's final price used in every backtest), Polymarket public API (prices are the market's own probability; liquidity varies by game), ESPN's scoreboard feed (provider as named by ESPN). All free, none paid, none a model input.