NFL
More
Markets · Week 4
Games to watch · where our pick differs from the market
These 3 games are our ones to watch coming into Week 4, where our model backs a different team than the market's benchmark pick and our pick is at least 52% (near coin-flips are left out). Both numbers are the probability that our pick wins; the market is a comparison, never a model input.
ARI @ NYGSun 1:00 PM
We back NYG · the market leans ARI
NFL60%
market43%
PIT @ CLEThu 8:15 PM · final: CLE
We back CLE · the market leans PIT
NFL56%
market42%
JAX @ CINSun 1:00 PM
We back JAX · the market leans CIN
NFL52%
market43%
Share this: the card image, or post the Markets page and it unfurls with this card.
Season record vs the markets
Straight-up, on the 47 graded games. "Differ" = games where our pick was the other side of that market's pick, and how often we were right there.
| Market | At | Games | Market right | We were right | Agreed | Differed | Our record when we differed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | close | 47 | 63.8% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 4–4 |
| DraftKings | open | 33 | 57.6% | 63.6% | 29 | 4 | 3–1 |
| Kalshi | close | 34 | 61.8% | 61.8% | 30 | 4 | 2–2 |
| Kalshi | open | 34 | 55.9% | 61.8% | 28 | 6 | 4–2 |
| nflverse price | close | 47 | 63.8% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 4–4 |
| nflverse price | open | 47 | 59.6% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 5–3 |
| Polymarket | close | 47 | 63.8% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 4–4 |
| Polymarket | open | 47 | 59.6% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 5–3 |
Big divergences (our closing probability at least 8 points from Polymarket's): 12 games: we were right in 8, Polymarket in 8.
Where these prices come from
Four public sources, none of them a model input. We show them so our number can be judged against the market's, and we say plainly which links pay us.
| Source | What it is | How we read it |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | A prediction market: people trade contracts on each team, so the price is the crowd's probability. | Public API, no account. Price of the home team's contract. |
| Kalshi | A prediction market regulated by the CFTC as an exchange (not a sportsbook). Same idea: the price is the probability. | Public API, no account. Midpoint of the bid and ask, or the last trade. |
| DraftKings via ESPN | A sportsbook price as displayed on ESPN's scoreboard. | Market price with the bookmaker's margin removed; the market margin when no market price is posted. |
| nflverse price | The consensus market's final price in the open nflverse dataset, the same price every backtest is graded against. | Market margin, total and market price as published. |
Week 4 · probability the home team wins
Each cell is open → close for that source, including ours. Bold = the source's pick at close. Market margin in brackets is home-minus-away (positive = home picked); ours is the model's projected margin. Polymarket and Kalshi prices are the market's own probability; sportsbook price are de-vigged from the market price. green = that source's benchmark pick is our pick; red = we differ.
| Kickoff | Game | NFL (runs) | Polymarket | Kalshi | DraftKings | nflverse | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | PIT @ CLE | 53% (+0.5) → 56% (+1.6) (41) | 44% (-2.5) → 40% (-2.5) | 44% → 40% | 43% (-2.5) → 43% (-2.5) | 42% (-3.0) → 43% (-2.5) | CLE |
| Sun 9:30 AM | IND @ WAS | 49% (-1.0) → 40% (-3.0) (32) | 32% (-4.5) → 36% (-3.5) | 34% → 36% | 40% (-3.5) → 40% (-3.5) | 36% (-4.5) → 37% (-3.5) | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | TEN @ BAL | 86% (+14.3) → 86% (+14.2) (31) | 84% (+10.5) → 86% (+10.5) | 84% → 84% | 80% (+11.5) → 80% (+11.5) | 82% (+10.5) → 83% (+11.5) | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | NE @ BUF | 65% (+5.1) → 76% (+9.2) (31) | 70% (+5.5) → 74% (+6.5) | 70% → 74% | 69% (+6.5) → 70% (+7.0) | 69% (+5.5) → 72% (+7.0) | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | NYJ @ CHI | 66% (+5.1) → 74% (+8.1) (31) | 63% (+3.5) → 62% (+3.5) | 64% → 62% | 60% (+3.5) → 60% (+3.5) | 60% (+3.0) → 61% (+3.5) | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | JAX @ CIN | 56% (+2.5) → 48% (-0.5) (31) | 58% (+2.5) → 57% (+2.5) | 58% → 57% | 57% (+2.5) → 57% (+2.5) | 60% (+3.0) → 56% (+2.5) | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | DAL @ HOU | 60% (+2.4) → 62% (+2.9) (31) | 57% (+2.5) → 60% (+2.5) | 57% → 60% | 57% (+2.5) → 59% (+3.0) | 59% (+3.0) → 59% (+3.0) | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | ARI @ NYG | 61% (+2.8) → 60% (+2.8) (31) | 56% (+2.5) → 44% (-2.5) | 55% → 44% | 46% (-1.5) → 43% (-2.5) | 55% (+2.5) → 44% (-2.5) | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | LA @ PHI | 47% (-0.7) → 49% (-0.5) (31) | 43% (-1.5) → 36% (-3.5) | 43% → 36% | 41% (-3.0) → 40% (-3.5) | 45% (-1.5) → 38% (-3.5) | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | GB @ TB | 52% (+1.0) → 38% (-2.7) (31) | 48% (-1.5) → 38% (-3.5) | 48% → 38% | 40% (-3.5) → 40% (-3.5) | 48% (-1.5) → 38% (-3.5) | pending |
| Sun 4:05 PM | MIA @ MIN | 74% (+9.8) → 80% (+11.8) (30) | 85% (+10.5) → 84% (+10.5) | 83% → 84% | 78% (+10.5) → 78% (+10.5) | 84% (+10.5) → 83% (+10.5) | pending |
| Sun 4:25 PM | KC @ LV | 38% (-3.9) → 36% (-4.7) (30) | 32% (-5.5) → 34% (-4.5) | 31% → 34% | 37% (-4.5) → 37% (-4.5) | 31% (-6.0) → 34% (-4.5) | pending |
| Sun 4:25 PM | LAC @ SEA | 81% (+11.3) → 74% (+8.6) (30) | 74% (+6.5) → 74% (+6.5) | 74% → 76% | 70% (+7.0) → 70% (+7.0) | 71% (+6.5) → 76% (+7.0) | pending |
| Sun 4:25 PM | DEN @ SF | 62% (+4.8) → 63% (+4.8) (30) | 59% (+4.5) → 56% (+2.5) | 60% → 56% | 59% (+3.0) → 59% (+3.0) | 61% (+3.0) → 57% (+3.0) | pending |
| Sun 8:20 PM | DET @ CAR | 42% (-1.7) → 34% (-4.4) (29) | 43% (+2.5) → 36% (-3.5) | 44% → 36% | 40% (-3.5) → 40% (-3.5) | 42% (-3.0) → 38% (-3.5) | pending |
| Mon 8:15 PM | ATL @ NO | 50% (+0.5) → 49% (-0.5) (22) | 58% (+2.5) → 56% (+2.5) | 57% → 56% | 59% (+3.0) → 57% (+2.5) | 57% (+2.5) → 56% (+2.5) | pending |
Sources: nflverse schedule feed (the market's final price used in every backtest), Polymarket public API (prices are the market's own probability; liquidity varies by game), ESPN's scoreboard feed (provider as named by ESPN). All free, none paid, none a model input.