NFL
More
Markets · Week 3
Games to watch · where our pick differs from the market
This 1 game is our one to watch coming into Week 3, where our model backs a different team than the market's benchmark pick and our pick is at least 52% (near coin-flips are left out). Both numbers are the probability that our pick wins; the market is a comparison, never a model input.
CAR @ CLESun 1:00 PM · final: CLE
We back CLE · the market leans CAR
NFL57%
market45%
Share this: the card image, or post the Markets page and it unfurls with this card.
Season record vs the markets
Straight-up, on the 47 graded games. "Differ" = games where our pick was the other side of that market's pick, and how often we were right there.
| Market | At | Games | Market right | We were right | Agreed | Differed | Our record when we differed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | close | 47 | 63.8% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 4–4 |
| DraftKings | open | 33 | 57.6% | 63.6% | 29 | 4 | 3–1 |
| Kalshi | close | 34 | 61.8% | 61.8% | 30 | 4 | 2–2 |
| Kalshi | open | 34 | 55.9% | 61.8% | 28 | 6 | 4–2 |
| nflverse price | close | 47 | 63.8% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 4–4 |
| nflverse price | open | 47 | 59.6% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 5–3 |
| Polymarket | close | 47 | 63.8% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 4–4 |
| Polymarket | open | 47 | 59.6% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 5–3 |
Big divergences (our closing probability at least 8 points from Polymarket's): 12 games: we were right in 8, Polymarket in 8.
Where these prices come from
Four public sources, none of them a model input. We show them so our number can be judged against the market's, and we say plainly which links pay us.
| Source | What it is | How we read it |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | A prediction market: people trade contracts on each team, so the price is the crowd's probability. | Public API, no account. Price of the home team's contract. |
| Kalshi | A prediction market regulated by the CFTC as an exchange (not a sportsbook). Same idea: the price is the probability. | Public API, no account. Midpoint of the bid and ask, or the last trade. |
| DraftKings via ESPN | A sportsbook price as displayed on ESPN's scoreboard. | Market price with the bookmaker's margin removed; the market margin when no market price is posted. |
| nflverse price | The consensus market's final price in the open nflverse dataset, the same price every backtest is graded against. | Market margin, total and market price as published. |
Week 3 · probability the home team wins
Each cell is open → close for that source, including ours. Bold = the source's pick at close. Market margin in brackets is home-minus-away (positive = home picked); ours is the model's projected margin. Polymarket and Kalshi prices are the market's own probability; sportsbook price are de-vigged from the market price. green = that source's benchmark pick is our pick; red = we differ.
| Kickoff | Game | NFL (runs) | Polymarket | Kalshi | DraftKings | nflverse | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | ATL @ GB | 73% (+5.7) → 76% (+6.8) (41) | 74% (+7.5) → 68% (+4.5) | 73% → 68% | 66% (+5.5) → 63% (+4.5) | 73% (+6.5) → 67% (+4.5) | ATL |
| Sun 1:00 PM | LAC @ BUF | 79% (+11.1) → 85% (+13.5) (43) | 71% (+4.5) → 76% (+7.5) | 70% → 76% | 70% (+7.0) → 70% (+7.0) | 67% (+4.5) → 74% (+7.0) | BUF |
| Sun 1:00 PM | CAR @ CLE | 56% (+2.4) → 57% (+2.0) (43) | 42% (-1.5) → 46% (-2.5) | 42% → 46% | 43% (-2.5) → 43% (-2.5) | 44% (-2.5) → 45% (-2.5) | CLE |
| Sun 1:00 PM | NYJ @ DET | 84% (+11.0) → 84% (+11.5) (42) | 74% (+6.5) → 74% (+6.5) | 76% → 72% | 69% (+6.5) → 69% (+6.5) | 76% (+7.5) → 73% (+6.5) | DET |
| Sun 1:00 PM | HOU @ IND | 40% (-2.1) → 48% (-0.9) (42) | 36% (-0.5) → 46% (-1.5) | 42% → 46% | 41% (-3.0) → 46% (-1.5) | 45% (-2.5) → 47% (-1.5) | IND |
| Sun 1:00 PM | NE @ JAX | 63% (+5.4) → 62% (+3.9) (42) | 56% (+0.5) → 60% (+2.5) | 54% → 60% | 59% (+3.0) → 59% (+3.0) | 55% (+2.5) → 58% (+3.0) | JAX |
| Sun 1:00 PM | KC @ MIA | 40% (-4.6) → 40% (-4.5) (42) | 18% (-6.5) → 16% (-10.5) | 17% → 16% | 20% (-11.5) → 23% (-10.0) | 21% (-8.5) → 18% (-10.0) | KC |
| Sun 1:00 PM | TEN @ NYG | 79% (+10.4) → 59% (+2.8) (42) | 69% (+7.5) → 56% (+2.5) | 70% → 56% | 57% (+2.5) → 57% (+2.5) | 69% (+5.5) → 54% (+2.5) | NYG |
| Sun 1:00 PM | CIN @ PIT | 50% (-0.5) → 38% (-3.8) (43) | 44% (-4.5) → 40% (-3.5) | 45% → 38% | 40% (-3.5) → 40% (-3.5) | 45% (-2.5) → 38% (-3.5) | PIT |
| Sun 1:00 PM | SEA @ WAS | 37% (-2.9) → 20% (-9.0) (43) | 45% (-3.5) → 22% (-8.5) | 46% → 22% | 30% (-7.0) → 26% (-8.5) | 45% (-2.5) → 22% (-8.5) | WAS |
| Sun 4:05 PM | ARI @ SF | 75% (+8.5) → 79% (+10.9) (43) | 80% (+14.5) → 78% (+7.5) | 80% → 78% | 74% (+8.5) → 71% (+7.5) | 79% (+8.5) → 77% (+7.5) | SF |
| Sun 4:05 PM | MIN @ TB | 48% (-1.9) → 46% (-1.8) (43) | 52% (+2.5) → 48% (-1.5) | 52% → 48% | 46% (-1.5) → 46% (-1.5) | 53% (+1.5) → 49% (-1.5) | MIN |
| Sun 4:25 PM | BAL @ DAL | 32% (-6.9) → 36% (-4.6) (43) | 40% (-4.5) → 38% (-3.5) | 38% → 38% | 40% (-3.5) → 41% (-3.0) | 42% (-3.0) → 40% (-3.0) | BAL |
| Sun 4:25 PM | LV @ NO | 66% (+4.2) → 63% (+4.0) (43) | 60% (+4.5) → 64% (+3.5) | 60% → 62% | 59% (+3.0) → 60% (+3.5) | 59% (+3.0) → 63% (+3.5) | LV |
| Sun 8:20 PM | LA @ DEN | 51% (+0.5) → 51% (+0.5) (43) | 44% (-3.5) → 50% (-2.5) | 44% → 50% | 43% (-2.5) → 46% (-1.5) | 45% (-2.5) → 49% (-1.5) | DEN |
| Mon 8:15 PM | PHI @ CHI | 54% (+1.6) → 34% (-3.9) (42) | 32% (+2.5) → 36% (-3.5) | 34% → 36% | 37% (-4.5) → 40% (-3.5) | 36% (-4.5) → 36% (-3.5) | CHI |
Sources: nflverse schedule feed (the market's final price used in every backtest), Polymarket public API (prices are the market's own probability; liquidity varies by game), ESPN's scoreboard feed (provider as named by ESPN). All free, none paid, none a model input.