NFL
More
Markets · Week 2
Games to watch · where our pick differs from the market
This 1 game is our one to watch coming into Week 2, where our model backs a different team than the market's benchmark pick and our pick is at least 52% (near coin-flips are left out). Both numbers are the probability that our pick wins; the market is a comparison, never a model input.
CAR @ ATLSun 1:00 PM · final: CAR
We back ATL · the market leans CAR
NFL53%
market43%
Share this: the card image, or post the Markets page and it unfurls with this card.
Season record vs the markets
Straight-up, on the 47 graded games. "Differ" = games where our pick was the other side of that market's pick, and how often we were right there.
| Market | At | Games | Market right | We were right | Agreed | Differed | Our record when we differed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | close | 47 | 63.8% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 4–4 |
| DraftKings | open | 33 | 57.6% | 63.6% | 29 | 4 | 3–1 |
| Kalshi | close | 34 | 61.8% | 61.8% | 30 | 4 | 2–2 |
| Kalshi | open | 34 | 55.9% | 61.8% | 28 | 6 | 4–2 |
| nflverse price | close | 47 | 63.8% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 4–4 |
| nflverse price | open | 47 | 59.6% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 5–3 |
| Polymarket | close | 47 | 63.8% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 4–4 |
| Polymarket | open | 47 | 59.6% | 63.8% | 39 | 8 | 5–3 |
Big divergences (our closing probability at least 8 points from Polymarket's): 12 games: we were right in 8, Polymarket in 8.
Where these prices come from
Four public sources, none of them a model input. We show them so our number can be judged against the market's, and we say plainly which links pay us.
| Source | What it is | How we read it |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | A prediction market: people trade contracts on each team, so the price is the crowd's probability. | Public API, no account. Price of the home team's contract. |
| Kalshi | A prediction market regulated by the CFTC as an exchange (not a sportsbook). Same idea: the price is the probability. | Public API, no account. Midpoint of the bid and ask, or the last trade. |
| DraftKings via ESPN | A sportsbook price as displayed on ESPN's scoreboard. | Market price with the bookmaker's margin removed; the market margin when no market price is posted. |
| nflverse price | The consensus market's final price in the open nflverse dataset, the same price every backtest is graded against. | Market margin, total and market price as published. |
Week 2 · probability the home team wins
Each cell is open → close for that source, including ours. Bold = the source's pick at close. Market margin in brackets is home-minus-away (positive = home picked); ours is the model's projected margin. Polymarket and Kalshi prices are the market's own probability; sportsbook price are de-vigged from the market price. green = that source's benchmark pick is our pick; red = we differ.
| Kickoff | Game | NFL (runs) | Polymarket | Kalshi | DraftKings | nflverse | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | DET @ BUF | 65% (+3.8) → 68% (+4.4) (32) | 60% (-14.5) → 70% (+5.5) | 64% → 70% | 66% (+5.5) → 66% (+5.5) | 59% (+3.0) → 68% (+5.5) | BUF |
| Sun 1:00 PM | CAR @ ATL | 56% (+2.9) → 53% (+3.3) (44) | 52% (-2.5) → 44% (-2.5) | 48% → 42% | 43% (-2.5) → 43% (-2.5) | 53% (+1.5) → 42% (-2.5) | CAR |
| Sun 1:00 PM | NO @ BAL | 72% (+7.9) → 73% (+8.9) (43) | 78% (-13.5) → 78% (+7.5) | 80% → 78% | 71% (+7.5) → 74% (+8.5) | 75% (+7.5) → 76% (+8.5) | NO |
| Sun 1:00 PM | MIN @ CHI | 52% (+0.5) → 61% (+3.3) (43) | 60% (+1.5) → 66% (+4.5) | 68% → 66% | 66% (+5.5) → 63% (+4.5) | 60% (+3.0) → 66% (+4.5) | MIN |
| Sun 1:00 PM | CIN @ HOU | 62% (+3.6) → 54% (+0.6) (44) | 56% (+2.5) → 57% (+2.5) | 58% → 58% | 59% (+3.0) → 59% (+3.0) | 57% (+2.5) → 57% (+3.0) | CIN |
| Sun 1:00 PM | PIT @ NE | 67% (+5.4) → 66% (+4.7) (43) | 62% (-3.5) → 68% (+5.5) | 68% → 68% | 63% (+4.5) → 66% (+5.5) | 64% (+4.5) → 67% (+5.5) | NE |
| Sun 1:00 PM | GB @ NYJ | 23% (-7.5) → 37% (-1.6) (44) | 32% (-5.5) → 40% (-3.5) | 34% → 38% | 37% (-4.5) → 40% (-3.5) | 32% (-5.5) → 38% (-3.5) | GB |
| Sun 1:00 PM | CLE @ TB | 70% (+5.4) → 74% (+7.9) (44) | 73% (+7.5) → 78% (+7.5) | 80% → 78% | 74% (+8.5) → 74% (+8.5) | 71% (+6.5) → 78% (+8.5) | CLE |
| Sun 1:00 PM | PHI @ TEN | 23% (-8.3) → 29% (-7.0) (43) | 30% (+2.5) → 26% (-7.5) | 24% → 24% | 30% (-7.0) → 30% (-7.0) | 33% (-5.5) → 27% (-7.0) | PHI |
| Sun 4:05 PM | JAX @ DEN | 51% (+1.6) → 51% (+0.5) (43) | 58% (-4.5) → 56% (+3.5) | 56% → 56% | 57% (+2.5) → 57% (+2.5) | 58% (+3.0) → 57% (+2.5) | DEN |
| Sun 4:05 PM | LV @ LAC | 78% (+9.3) → 64% (+3.6) (43) | 80% (+9.5) → 74% (+6.5) | 74% → 74% | 69% (+6.5) → 69% (+6.5) | 77% (+9.5) → 73% (+6.5) | LV |
| Sun 4:25 PM | SEA @ ARI | 24% (-7.9) → 31% (-4.6) (43) | 23% (-9.5) → 34% (-3.5) | 33% → 34% | 40% (-3.5) → 40% (-3.5) | 31% (-5.5) → 34% (-3.5) | SEA |
| Sun 4:25 PM | WAS @ DAL | 56% (+2.5) → 56% (+1.8) (43) | 68% (-3.5) → 66% (+3.5) | 64% → 66% | 63% (+4.5) → 60% (+3.5) | 64% (+4.5) → 66% (+3.5) | DAL |
| Sun 4:25 PM | MIA @ SF | 76% (+9.5) → 78% (+11.4) (43) | 86% (-4.5) → 88% (+13.5) | 90% → 88% | 84% (+13.5) → 82% (+12.5) | 86% (+12.5) → 86% (+12.5) | SF |
| Sun 8:20 PM | IND @ KC | 60% (+3.2) → 66% (+6.6) (43) | 71% (+3.5) → 72% (+6.5) | 72% → 72% | 69% (+6.5) → 67% (+6.0) | 71% (+6.5) → 70% (+6.0) | KC |
| Mon 8:15 PM | NYG @ LA | 71% (+6.3) → 68% (+5.5) (41) | 76% (+7.5) → 72% (+6.5) | 76% → 72% | 70% (+7.0) → 69% (+6.5) | 74% (+7.0) → 72% (+6.5) | LA |
Sources: nflverse schedule feed (the market's final price used in every backtest), Polymarket public API (prices are the market's own probability; liquidity varies by game), ESPN's scoreboard feed (provider as named by ESPN). All free, none paid, none a model input.