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Markets · Week 4
Games to watch · where our pick differs from the market
These 3 games are our ones to watch coming into Week 4, where our model backs a different team than the market's market pick at kickoff and our pick is at least 52% (near coin-flips are left out). Both numbers are the probability that our pick wins; the market is a comparison, never a model input.
ARI @ NYGSun 1:00 PM
We back NYG · the market leans ARI
niftiNFL60%
market44%
PIT @ CLEThu 8:15 PM
We back CLE · the market leans PIT
niftiNFL56%
market43%
JAX @ CINSun 1:00 PM
We back JAX · the market leans CIN
niftiNFL52%
market43%
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Season record vs the markets
Straight-up, on the 46 graded games. "Differ" = games where our pick was the other side of that market's pick, and how often we were right there.
| Market | At | Games | Market right | We were right | Agreed | Differed | Our record when we differed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | close | 46 | 65.2% | 63.0% | 39 | 7 | 3–4 |
| DraftKings | open | 32 | 59.4% | 62.5% | 29 | 3 | 2–1 |
| Kalshi | close | 33 | 63.6% | 60.6% | 30 | 3 | 1–2 |
| Kalshi | open | 33 | 57.6% | 60.6% | 28 | 5 | 3–2 |
| nflverse price | close | 46 | 65.2% | 63.0% | 39 | 7 | 3–4 |
| nflverse price | open | 46 | 60.9% | 63.0% | 39 | 7 | 4–3 |
| Polymarket | close | 46 | 65.2% | 63.0% | 39 | 7 | 3–4 |
| Polymarket | open | 46 | 60.9% | 63.0% | 39 | 7 | 4–3 |
Big divergences (our closing probability at least 8 points from Polymarket's): 11 games: we were right in 7, Polymarket in 8.
Where these prices come from
Four public sources, none of them a model input. We show them so our number can be judged against the market's, and we say plainly which links pay us.
| Source | What it is | How we read it |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | A prediction market: people trade contracts on each team, so the price is the crowd's probability. | Public API, no account. Price of the home team's contract. |
| Kalshi · kalshi.com | A prediction market regulated by the CFTC as an exchange (not a sportsbook). Same idea: the price is the probability. | Public API, no account. Midpoint of the bid and ask, or the last trade. |
| DraftKings via ESPN | A sportsbook price as displayed on ESPN's scoreboard. | Market price with the bookmaker's margin removed; the market margin when no market price is posted. |
| nflverse price | The consensus market's final price in the open nflverse dataset, the same price every backtest is graded against. | Market margin, total and market price as published. |
Disclosure. If you open a Kalshi account through this link and make a first trade, Kalshi pays us a referral bonus and gives you one too. That is the only money this site makes from any market, and it never changes a prediction. Kalshi is for U.S. residents 18 and over. Predictions are published to show the model works. Nothing here is betting advice. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Week 4 · probability the home team wins
Each cell is open → close for that source, including ours. Bold = the source's pick at close. Market margin in brackets is home-minus-away (positive = home picked); ours is the model's projected margin. Polymarket and Kalshi prices are the market's own probability; sportsbook price are de-vigged from the market price. green = that source's market pick at kickoff is our pick; red = we differ.
| Kickoff | Game | niftiNFL (runs) | Polymarket | Kalshi | DraftKings | nflverse | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | PIT @ CLE | 53% (+0.5) → 56% (+1.6) (38) | 44% (-2.5) → 42% (-2.5) | 44% → 42% | 43% (-2.5) → 43% (-2.5) | 42% (-3.0) → 43% (-2.5) | pending |
| Sun 9:30 AM | IND @ WAS | 49% (-1.0) → 40% (-3.0) (27) | 32% (-4.5) → 36% (-3.5) | 34% → 36% | 40% (-3.5) → 40% (-3.5) | 36% (-4.5) → 37% (-3.5) | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | TEN @ BAL | 86% (+14.3) → 86% (+14.2) (26) | 84% (+10.5) → 86% (+10.5) | 84% → 86% | 80% (+11.5) → 80% (+11.5) | 82% (+10.5) → 84% (+11.5) | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | NE @ BUF | 65% (+5.1) → 76% (+9.3) (26) | 70% (+5.5) → 72% (+6.5) | 70% → 74% | 69% (+6.5) → 69% (+6.5) | 69% (+5.5) → 71% (+6.5) | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | NYJ @ CHI | 66% (+5.1) → 74% (+8.1) (26) | 63% (+3.5) → 62% (+3.5) | 64% → 62% | 60% (+3.5) → 60% (+3.5) | 60% (+3.0) → 61% (+3.5) | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | JAX @ CIN | 56% (+2.5) → 48% (-1.1) (26) | 58% (+2.5) → 57% (+2.5) | 58% → 57% | 57% (+2.5) → 57% (+2.5) | 60% (+3.0) → 56% (+2.5) | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | DAL @ HOU | 60% (+2.4) → 62% (+2.9) (26) | 57% (+2.5) → 60% (+2.5) | 57% → 60% | 57% (+2.5) → 59% (+3.0) | 59% (+3.0) → 59% (+3.0) | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | ARI @ NYG | 61% (+2.8) → 60% (+2.9) (26) | 56% (+2.5) → 44% (-2.5) | 55% → 44% | 46% (-1.5) → 43% (-2.5) | 55% (+2.5) → 45% (-2.5) | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | LA @ PHI | 47% (-0.7) → 49% (-0.5) (26) | 43% (-1.5) → 40% (-3.5) | 43% → 40% | 41% (-3.0) → 41% (-3.0) | 45% (-1.5) → 41% (-3.0) | pending |
| Sun 1:00 PM | GB @ TB | 52% (+1.0) → 42% (-1.5) (26) | 48% (-1.5) → 38% (-3.5) | 48% → 38% | 40% (-3.5) → 40% (-3.5) | 48% (-1.5) → 38% (-3.5) | pending |
| Sun 4:05 PM | MIA @ MIN | 74% (+9.8) → 80% (+11.8) (25) | 85% (+10.5) → 84% (+10.5) | 83% → 84% | 78% (+10.5) → 78% (+10.5) | 84% (+10.5) → 82% (+10.5) | pending |
| Sun 4:25 PM | KC @ LV | 38% (-3.9) → 36% (-4.7) (25) | 32% (-5.5) → 34% (-4.5) | 31% → 35% | 37% (-4.5) → 37% (-4.5) | 31% (-6.0) → 34% (-4.5) | pending |
| Sun 4:25 PM | LAC @ SEA | 81% (+11.3) → 74% (+8.6) (25) | 74% (+6.5) → 74% (+6.5) | 74% → 76% | 70% (+7.0) → 70% (+7.0) | 71% (+6.5) → 76% (+7.0) | pending |
| Sun 4:25 PM | DEN @ SF | 62% (+4.8) → 63% (+4.7) (25) | 59% (+4.5) → 56% (+2.5) | 60% → 57% | 59% (+3.0) → 59% (+3.0) | 61% (+3.0) → 57% (+3.0) | pending |
| Sun 8:20 PM | DET @ CAR | 42% (-1.7) → 34% (-4.4) (24) | 43% (+2.5) → 36% (-3.5) | 44% → 36% | 40% (-3.5) → 40% (-3.5) | 42% (-3.0) → 38% (-3.5) | pending |
| Mon 8:15 PM | ATL @ NO | 50% (+0.5) → 50% (+0.5) (17) | 58% (+2.5) → 56% (+2.5) | 57% → 56% | 59% (+3.0) → 57% (+2.5) | 57% (+2.5) → 57% (+2.5) | pending |
Sources: nflverse schedule feed (the market's final price used in every backtest), Polymarket public API (prices are the market's own probability; liquidity varies by game), ESPN's scoreboard feed (provider as named by ESPN). All free, none paid, none a model input.