Season · 2026-27

Each team's strength comes from its current roster's lineup ratings, minutes-weighted; the rest of the schedule is simulated 5,000 times. Preseason: everyone healthy, rosters as of 2026-10-09. Updated 2026-10-09.

Draft Preseason draft · the projection on record is locked Mon Oct 19.

est. 57%

title chance #1 · Oklahoma City Thunder

est. 23%

title chance #2 · Boston Celtics

est. 14%

title chance #3 · Houston Rockets

est. 2%

title chance #4 · San Antonio Spurs

Power rankings

Strength = points per 100 possessions better (or worse) than an average team this roster projects to be: a +5 team beats an average team by about five points a game on a neutral floor. A projection of the roster on paper, not a ranking of how good the team has looked. Range = 10th to 90th percentile of 5,000 simulated seasons, so about one team in five finishes outside its own range. Every chance is est.

#	Team	Strength	Est. wins	Range	Last year	Playoffs	Title	Who drives it
1	OKC Oklahoma City Thunder	+12.1	66	60–70	64	>99%	57%	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein
2	HOU Houston Rockets	+8.5	59	53–64	52	>99%	14%	Amen Thompson, Fred VanVleet, Kevin Durant
3	BOS Boston Celtics	+8.3	59	54–65	56	>99%	23%	Derrick White, Jayson Tatum, Neemias Queta
4	SAS San Antonio Spurs	+5.0	52	46–57	61	>99%	2%	Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper
5	NYK New York Knicks	+3.5	49	43–54	52	99%	1%	OG Anunoby, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns
6	DET Detroit Pistons	+3.4	49	44–55	59	99%	2%	Ausar Thompson, Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren
7	POR Portland Trail Blazers	+1.6	44	39–50	42	85%	<1%	Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Damian Lillard
8	CLE Cleveland Cavaliers	+1.4	45	39–50	52	90%	<1%	Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley
9	DEN Denver Nuggets	+1.3	44	38–49	54	82%	<1%	Nikola Jokić, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson
10	ORL Orlando Magic	+0.7	43	37–48	44	82%	<1%	Franz Wagner, Desmond Bane, Wendell Carter Jr.
11	DAL Dallas Mavericks	+0.4	41	35–46	26	63%	<1%	Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively II, Cooper Flagg
12	ATL Atlanta Hawks	-0.1	41	36–47	46	72%	<1%	Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Nickeil Alexander-Walker
13	TOR Toronto Raptors	-0.1	41	35–46	46	67%	<1%	Immanuel Quickley, Jakob Poeltl, Scottie Barnes
14	GSW Golden State Warriors	-0.1	40	35–46	37	57%	<1%	Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Jimmy Butler III
15	PHI Philadelphia 76ers	-0.2	41	35–46	45	68%	<1%	Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe
16	PHX Phoenix Suns	-0.4	40	35–46	45	56%	<1%	Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks, Collin Gillespie
17	MIN Minnesota Timberwolves	-0.7	38	33–44	49	40%	<1%	Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, Rudy Gobert
18	LAC LA Clippers	-1.0	39	34–45	42	46%	<1%	Kawhi Leonard, Darius Garland, Derrick Jones Jr.
19	MIA Miami Heat	-1.1	39	34–45	43	55%	<1%	Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell
20	LAL Los Angeles Lakers	-1.1	38	33–44	53	37%	<1%	Luka Dončić, Austin Reaves, Walker Kessler
21	UTA Utah Jazz	-1.8	37	31–42	22	26%	<1%	Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., Svi Mykhailiuk
22	CHA Charlotte Hornets	-2.3	37	31–42	44	32%	<1%	Kon Knueppel, Moussa Diabaté, Coby White
23	IND Indiana Pacers	-2.4	36	31–42	19	26%	<1%	Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton, Aaron Nesmith
24	MEM Memphis Grizzlies	-3.6	33	27–38	24	6%	<1%	Zach Edey, Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells
25	MIL Milwaukee Bucks	-4.8	31	26–37	32	5%	<1%	Myles Turner, Tyler Herro, Ryan Rollins
26	CHI Chicago Bulls	-5.0	30	25–36	31	3%	<1%	Jalen Smith, Leonard Miller, Josh Giddey
27	NOP New Orleans Pelicans	-5.0	29	24–35	26	1%	<1%	Herbert Jones, Zion Williamson, Karlo Matković
28	SAC Sacramento Kings	-5.2	30	24–35	22	1%	<1%	Domantas Sabonis, Keegan Murray, Nique Clifford
29	BKN Brooklyn Nets	-5.3	30	25–35	20	3%	<1%	Day'Ron Sharpe, Julius Randle, Michael Porter Jr.
30	WAS Washington Wizards	-6.2	28	23–34	17	<1%	<1%	Anthony Davis, Kyshawn George, Jamir Watkins

* rookie or player without NBA minutes yet; counted at the average first-year rating (about −1 per 100 possessions) until he has played.

Projected standings · East

Top 6 = playoff spots; 7 to 10 = play-in. Chances are est. from the simulations; nobody is "in" or "out" until it's mathematically settled.

#	Team	Est. wins	Playoffs	Play-in	1 seed	Conf. champ
1	BOS	59	>99%	<1%	90%	64%
2	DET	49	99%	5%	5%	12%
3	NYK	49	99%	6%	4%	13%
4	CLE	45	90%	25%	<1%	4%
5	ORL	43	82%	35%	<1%	2%
6	ATL	41	72%	45%	<1%	2%
7	TOR	41	67%	49%	<1%	1%
8	PHI	41	68%	47%	<1%	1%
9	MIA	39	55%	54%	<1%	<1%
10	CHA	37	32%	50%	<1%	<1%
11	IND	36	26%	44%	<1%	<1%
12	MIL	31	5%	16%	<1%	<1%
13	CHI	30	3%	10%	<1%	<1%
14	BKN	30	3%	8%	<1%	<1%
15	WAS	28	<1%	4%	<1%	<1%

Projected standings · West

Top 6 = playoff spots; 7 to 10 = play-in. Chances are est. from the simulations; nobody is "in" or "out" until it's mathematically settled.

#	Team	Est. wins	Playoffs	Play-in	1 seed	Conf. champ
1	OKC	66	>99%	<1%	88%	71%
2	HOU	59	>99%	<1%	11%	23%
3	SAS	52	>99%	2%	<1%	4%
4	POR	44	85%	28%	<1%	<1%
5	DEN	44	82%	32%	<1%	<1%
6	DAL	41	63%	45%	<1%	<1%
7	GSW	40	57%	48%	<1%	<1%
8	PHX	40	56%	47%	<1%	<1%
9	LAC	39	46%	47%	<1%	<1%
10	MIN	38	40%	46%	<1%	<1%
11	LAL	38	37%	45%	<1%	<1%
12	UTA	37	26%	38%	<1%	<1%
13	MEM	33	6%	15%	<1%	<1%
14	SAC	30	1%	5%	<1%	<1%
15	NOP	29	1%	4%	<1%	<1%

Biggest risers vs last season

Est. wins against last season's actual wins.

Team	Last	Est.	Change
IND	19	36	+17
DAL	26	41	+15
UTA	22	37	+15
WAS	17	28	+11
BKN	20	30	+10

Biggest fallers vs last season

Team	Last	Est.	Change
LAL	53	38	-15
MIN	49	38	-11
DEN	54	44	-10
DET	59	49	-10
SAS	61	52	-9

Projections are estimates with wide error bars; injuries, trades and rookies will move them. In our four-season test the preseason projection missed final wins by about 8 on average. Refreshed after every game day once the season starts.