Oklahoma City Thunder: playoff chances and predictions

Q: Will the Oklahoma City Thunder make the playoffs?

Our model gives them est. >99% as of Oct 9 (a top-6 seed or a spot through the play-in), with a title chance of est. 57%. It's a projection from the data and it changes as the season goes.

Every pick is stored before tip-off and graded after the final, so you can check how we've done on Thunder games. How accurate →

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder make the playoffs? Our model says est. >99% as of Oct 9, with a title chance of est. 57%.

Making the playoffs = a top-6 seed in the West or a spot through the play-in. Preseason draft · the projection on record is locked Mon Oct 19.

power ranking of 30

+12.1

strength per 100 possessions

est. wins (range 60–70)

est. 57%

title chance

Team strength

Our model rates the Thunder 12.1 points per 100 possessions better than an average team, #1 of 30. Strength comes from the current roster's lineup ratings, minutes-weighted. 64 wins last season.

Who drives it	Min	Rating
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	29	+9.9
Chet Holmgren	25	+7.9
Isaiah Hartenstein	21	+6.2
Ajay Mitchell	23	+4.2
Alex Caruso	16	+5.3

Chances this season

From 5,000 simulated seasons. Estimates, not promises; nobody is "in" or "out" until it's mathematically settled.

Make the playoffs	est. >99%
Play-in (7th to 10th)	est. <1%
No. 1 seed in the West	est. 88%
Win the West	est. 71%
Win the title	est. 57%

All 30 teams on the Season page →

Next game

Next: Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs, Tue, Oct 20, 9:30 PM ET.

Preseason: picks start Oct 20. Our pick posts before tip-off.

Every Thunder pick, graded

Preseason: picks start Oct 20; every one gets graded in public. Every graded pick →

Quick answers

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder make the playoffs?

Our model gives them est. >99% as of Oct 9 (a top-6 seed or a spot through the play-in), with a title chance of est. 57%. It's a projection from the data and it changes as the season goes.

When do the Thunder play next?

Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs, Tue, Oct 20. Our pick posts before tip-off (preseason: picks start oct 20).

How accurate are niftiIQ's Thunder predictions?

Every pick is stored before tip-off and graded after the final, in public. Picks start Oct 20.

How this works

Team strength comes from each roster's lineup ratings; the rest of the schedule is simulated 5,000 times for the season chances. Game picks come from a model that retrains before every run, and every pick is stored before tip-off and graded after the final. How it works · All 30 teams · NBA FAQ