FAQ

How accurate are niftiIQ's NBA predictions?

In a three-season walk-forward test (2023-24 to 2025-26), our current NBA model (v2.3) picked 68.0% of winners. Just picking the home team every game gets 55%. From opening night, every live pick is graded in public on the Record page.

When are NBA picks posted?

The model runs twice a day, at 10:00 AM and 4:00 PM ET, and gives every game that day an est. win chance for both teams. The last run before tip-off is the pick of record. The first picks of the 2026-27 season are for opening night, Tuesday, October 20, 2026.

Are picks ever changed after tip-off?

No. Each pick of record is stored with a time stamp before tip-off and is never edited or removed. It's graded against the final score overnight and listed on the Record page, right or wrong.

What does "est. 70%" mean?

It's the model's estimated chance that the team wins. Over many games, teams we give an est. 70% should win about 7 in 10; the calibration table on the Record page shows whether they do.

Why is no NBA pick ever a sure thing?

Because nothing in the NBA is certain: late injury news, rest days and shooting luck decide many games by a few possessions. The smallest chance we show is "<1%" and the largest ">99%".

What goes into a niftiIQ NBA pick?

Team quality (opponent-adjusted ratings), recent form, rest and schedule, home court, and the expected lineup, rated from play-by-play: how much the score moves while each player is on the floor. Each game shows a one-line reason with the factors that moved the chance most.

What is a Brier score?

A Brier score measures how good probability predictions are: the squared gap between the stated chance and the result (1 for a win, 0 for a loss), averaged over every game. Lower is better; saying 50% every game scores 0.25. Our model averaged 0.207 in the three-season test.

How are the NBA season projections made?

Each team's strength comes from its current roster's lineup ratings, weighted by minutes. The rest of the schedule is then simulated 5,000 times to estimate wins, playoff chances and title chances for every team. Games already played count as final.

Is this NBA betting advice?

No. niftiIQ shows no market prices, no betting tips and no links to betting sites. Predictions are published to show how well the model works, and every one of them is graded in public.

Is niftiIQ affiliated with the NBA?

No. niftiIQ is independent and isn't affiliated with or endorsed by the NBA or any team. It uses the NBA's public game data.

Do the NBA pages cost anything?

No. Every NBA page on niftiIQ is free: the daily picks, the record, the season projections, the player ratings and the accuracy page.

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