Glossary
The words behind the numbers, in plain English.
Sport-specific terms: NBA glossary · NFL glossary · How Heal points work. Common questions are on the FAQ.
est.
Short for estimate. Every chance and projection on niftiIQ is an estimate from a model, never a promise.
Win chance
The model's estimated chance that a team wins a game, shown for both teams. Our pick is the team above 50%.
Pick of record
The last prediction stored before a game starts. It has a time stamp, it's never edited, and it's the one that gets graded.
Graded
After the final score, each pick of record is marked right or wrong and added to that sport's public record page.
Brier score
A measure of how good probability predictions are: the squared gap between the stated chance and what happened (1 for a win, 0 for a loss), averaged over games. Lower is better; always saying 50% scores 0.25.
Calibration
Whether stated chances mean what they say: teams given an est. 70% should win about 7 games in 10 over many games.
Walk-forward test
An honest backtest: each day's predictions use only games played before that day, the way the model works live.
Baseline
The simple rule a model has to beat, such as always picking the home team. An accuracy number means little without one.
Projection
An estimate of how a season ends (wins, playoff spot, title) made by simulating the remaining schedule thousands of times.
Power rating
A single number for how strong a team is, from its results adjusted for the opponents it played.
Crabtree Index
The MPA's formula that ranks Maine high school football teams for the playoffs: (win% + opponents' combined win%) × 100. niftiIQ recomputes it after every game.
Heal points
The MPA's formula that ranks Maine high school basketball teams for the tournament: points for each win by the class of the team beaten, divided by games on the schedule, then a tournament index built from the teams you beat.
Playoff picture
Where each team can still finish: which seeds are still possible, and which are already locked in or out.
What-if
A niftiIQ Plus tool: pick the results of upcoming games and see how the standings and playoff seeds change.
How the numbers work · FAQ. Every chance on this site is a projection from the data, not a promise. Nothing here is financial or legal advice.