Record

Every pick is stored before tip-off and graded against the final score the next morning. Every graded pick is listed below; nothing is edited or removed.

0–0

no games graded yet

–

Brier score (lower is better; a coin flip is 0.250)

–

log loss (lower is better; a coin flip is 0.693)

–

hit rate on est. 80%+ picks

longest streak · current 0

–

avg. margin miss (points)

For comparison: our v2.3 model went 68.0% (Brier 0.207) in a walk-forward replay of the last three seasons, 2023-24 67.5%, 2024-25 68.6%, 2025-26 67.8%. How accurate NBA models are

Does confidence mean anything?

Fills in from opening night.

Month by month

Fills in from opening night.

Every graded pick

0 graded, newest first. "Stored" is when the pick of record was saved, always before tip-off.

The 2026-27 record starts at 0–0 on opening night, Tue Oct 20. The first picks are graded the next morning.